GER30 Stops 4-Day Profitable Streak As Germany Activates Emergency Gas Plans
German Emergency Gas Plan
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action triggered today the Early Warning Level of the Emergency Plan for Gas for the Federal Republic of Germany. This is the first crisis level out of three, with the other two being the "Alert" and the "Emergency" tiers. [1]
The activation comes after Russia's announcement that it would only accept gas payments in Roubles and not Euros, something that the G7 countries rejected this week. This stand-off could lead to disruption in natural gas imports from Russia, a resource on which Germany and Europe rely heavily.
Minister Habeck however, stressed that the "Security of supply continues to be ensured. There are no supply bottlenecks at present".
European countries have been trying to minimize their dependence on Russian energy with the EU Commission having announced a plan in early March, which could reduce EU demand for Russian gas by two thirds before the end of the year [2]. Last week, the EU struck a deal with the United Sates for liquified natural gas (LNG) [3].
Russia – Ukraine Peace Talks
Hopes for a peaceful solution prevailed yesterday, as the negotiation between the two sides appeared to be constructive. Most notably, Russia pledged to "drastically reduce military activity" near Ukrainian Capital Kiyv"* [4].
Today however, we see this optimism waning and markets becoming a bit skeptical after the press secretary of the US Pentagon warned the Russian troops moves away from Kyiv is a "repositioning, not a real withdrawal", adding that "we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine". [5]
GER30 Analysis
The index started the week on solid footing helped by market optimism and posted its fourth straight profitable day yesterday, but faltered ahead of key technical levels and sheds around 1% today.
This can lead to further slide and a test of the EMA200 at 14,420-14,358 although fresh catalyst may be for daily closes below this region. This would shift immediate bias on the downside and expose it to 13,900-13,787.
Despite today's slide, GER30 heads towards a monthly rebound and managed to close Tuesday above the 61.8% Fibonacci of the 2022 High/Low drop, even if marginally. As long as it defends the EMA200 it has the ability to push again for a move past the 200Days EMA and the daily Ichimoku Cloud (15,100-15,300), but it does not yet inspire confidence for challenging 15,739.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
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