GBP/USD Cautious at Key Tech Levels after Another BoE Hike
GBP/USD Analysis
The Bank of England delivered its twelfth straight increase on Thursday and even though it still expects inflation to fall sharply, it actually raised its forecast. It also upgraded the GDP projections, not seeing a recession anymore [1]. Today's preliminary data showed an 0.1% expansion q/q in Q1, same as in the previous quarter, while industrial production rose to 0.7% m/m in March and the highest in nearly a year.
The central bank remained non-committal in regards to future moves, but the above revisions keep the door open to more hikes ahead. Speaking to Bloomberg after the decision, governor Bailey said that officials we'll be "shaped by the evidence", adding that they are "approaching" a point when they should be able to "rest". [2]
GBP/USD fell yesterday, but this was probably not so much a reaction to the BoE, but the result of broader USD demand at the time. The USDOLLAR got some risk-off flows, as regional US bank PacWest disclosed a 9.5% decline in deposits last week [3] and the US debt-ceiling talks have not yielded any results so far, ahead of the estimated early-June deadline.
This creates risk for a drop below the EMA200 that would expose it to 1.2290-40, but fresh catalyst would likely be needed for that and sustained weakness below the daily Ichimokou Cloud does not look easy, given the current monetary policy differential.
The US Fed hinted to a pause and markets expect rate cuts this year, viewing this week's moderation in consumer and factory gate inflation, as well as the increase in jobless claims, as supportive of a less aggressive stance. The BoE did not offer guidance, but its GDP/Inflation forecasts and the actual data, offer justification for further tightening.
As long as it can defend the EMA200, the upside bias remains intact and GBP/USD has the ability to set fresh 2023 (1.2680), although further advance towards 1.2948 does not look easy.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 11 May 2023 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2023/may-2023 | |
| Retrieved 11 May 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-05-11/boe-s-bailey-on-rate-decision-inflation-mortgages-video | |
| Retrieved 08 Dec 2023 https://www.sec.gov/ix |
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