FXCM Market Talk – Your Trading & Finance Podcast (Ep. 65)
065 – What a difference a week makes in the markets
Last Week:
- NFP 517K vs 190K forecast.
- Unemployment 3.5%-->3.4%
- Wage data came in as forecast at 0.3% m/m.
- PMI non-manufacturing data is strongly back above 50.
- Fed raises rated by 25bps on Wed.
- Hawkish but more relaxed.
- Powell talked about the disinflation process.
- Did not validate December projections.
- Offered little push back against the market.
- Opened the door to potential pivot (in case of overshoot).
- Following NFP, terminal rate is pushed back one month, and markets sees 5.25%.
- Employment coming back into focus: will unemployment increase.
- ECB: raised by 50bps and committed to another 50bps in March in statement.
- Intentions are to hike passed March.
- President Lagarde acknowledged more balanced risks to inflation outlook.
- ECB likely more hawkish than Fed.
- BoE: No surprises but unclear guidance.
- Softened communication but didn't signal pause.
- Comment – may be at the turning point but not necessarily done.
This week:
- Powell: moderated discussion Economic Club of Washington (Tuesday).
- RBA cash rate: 25bps after recent inflation surprise?
- Williams (NY Fed president) interview with Nick Timiraos on Wed.
- UK GDP on Fri.
- China/US relations are strained after US shoots down "spy" balloon.
- Tech Earnings: BP, Disney. Last week Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.