FXCM Market Talk – Your Trading and Finance Podcast (Ep. 60)
060 - Market and central banks at odds
Fed raised by 50bps. Less aggressive, but higher TR upped to 5.1 (4.6). Fed chair was hawkish.
ECB even more hawkish than Fed. 50bps ongoing and QT announced. Hawkish ECB is a more convincing case — more ground to cover, but more difficult to deliver because of the fractious nature of the bank.
BoE delivered 50 bps and was the least hawkish of the three. There was a three-way split: 0, 50bps, 75bps.
There is a disconnect between the banks and the market. Market's expect cuts in H2 2023. Fed dismisses this.
Data is confusing and ambiguous. Services PMI beat to the upside, but industrial production and retail sales were both down (weak). CPI also showed signs of moderating.
This week:
BoJ — some reports suggesting an announcement regarding the 2% inflation target. CPI out as well (Fri).
CPI Canada - Wed.
US PCE data on Friday. May take lead from CPI and moderate.
Final GDP on Thurs q/q 2.9% (US), -0.2% (UK).
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
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