Friday’s job data may be too good to be true
The 517K non-farm payroll surprised the market. This beat the most bullish forecasts. However, marketwatch.com has an interesting article suggesting that all is not as it seems.
The article cites three main reasons that the 517K is temporary:
warm weather.
The resolution of strikes in California.
A seasonal adjustment.
Seasonal adjustments net off to zero, implying weaker future prints in the short-medium term.
Steve Englander, head of North America macro strategy at Standard Charted, also refers to the household survey. It suggests softness in payrolls and points to part-time jobs being created. Englander is also waiting for the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This is released by the Philadelphia Fed and has found jobs to be overstated in the past. It is due to be released 22 February, and may raise questions regarding the NFP data.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.