EURUSD short-term analysis – 27 February 2023


Weekly Chart


The top chart shows the US 10-Year real rate and the middle chart is the EURUSD. The correlation coefficient (cc) between the two series is -61% (bottom indicator). This correlation does not always hold true, but it has been the dominant relationship since March 2022.

The core PCE rippled through to yields, and the real rate increased following the inflation series release on Friday. It isn't a surprise that EURUSD declined given the cc.

Daily Chart

The downside catalyst was the surprise 517,000 NFP print on 3rd February, which pressured EURUSD (blue arrow). Since then, EURUSD has been trading in its bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. Momentum is defined by its stochastic, which is firmly in its lower quintile (green rectangle). This denotes a robust bearish energy.

Hourly Chart

The hourly chart has shown strength on the day. However, given the higher timeframe downside bias, resistance levels may be interesting to shorts. Here, price is wrestling with the central pivot, P. If the trend-following EMAs and momentum-based stochastic cross down, the shorts may come in from the sidelines.

Why Trade with FXCM

Commission free with fast, efficient execution.

The next level of interest is the R1 resistance pivot. It overlaps with price resistance (green rectangle). This makes R1 a formidable level for the bulls to overcome.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.