EURUSD short-term analysis – 07 June 2023

  • EURUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

EURUSD Daily

  • Candlesticks are positioned in the bearish channel between lower blue and red bands.
  • RSI is below 50 (green rectangle), which is the bearish side of the oscillator. The longer it maintains this position, the greater the probability for lower prices ahead.

EURUSD Hourly

  • Trend-following EMAs have crossed down (top black ellipse).
  • Momentum-based stochastic has crossed down (bottom black ellipse).
  • If the EMAs maintain angle and separation and the stochastic makes its way to the lower quintile and holds (blue arrow), the underlying momentum will be to the downside, putting pressure on the EURUSD price.

Commentary

Last week saw an easing in Europe's high inflation. The flash headline CPI came in at 6.1% y/y which was lower than the 6.3% y/y expected and lower than the previous reading of 7% y/y. Flash core CPI was also lower than anticipated at 5.3% y/y (vs 5.5% y/y expected) and lower than the previous 5.6% y/y.

In response, the spread between the German and US 2-year notes has been narrowing since May. Despite this easing, the dovish stance does not seem to be gaining momentum in the lead-up to the upcoming policy announcement by the European Central Bank. President Christine Lagarde's recent remarks reaffirming her support for a more stringent approach have likely played a significant role in maintaining market expectations, with the July meeting still priced at a 40-45 basis points level.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${getInstrumentData.name} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${getInstrumentData.exchange}

${getInstrumentData.bid} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}
Disclosure

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.