The ECB has followed the Fed and the BoE with its own 50bps hike. It also announced quantitative tightening from March 2023. Tone was hawkish, with the statement saying, "interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target."
Reinvestment of maturing bonds under its asset purchasing programme (APP) will decline to €15bn/month until the end of March 2023. It expects a short recession with growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024.
EURUSD responded to the news. Its hourly chart shows a spike up with the trend following EMAs and momentum based stochastic crossing up. Both show steep angle and separation. The R2 pivot level is acting as a resistance. However, if the stochastic can make it to its upper quintile and hold (green rectangle), the currency pair will probably trade higher.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.