EUR/USD Tries to Hold Key Support & Stop its 2-Weeks Losing Streak

  • EURUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

EUR/USD Analysis

The European Central Bank (ECB) has out-hawked its US counterpart, since it raised rates again by 0.5% earlier this month, intends to deliver another hikes of the same size and President Lagarde said that they will not stop there. [1]

The US Federal Reserve on the other hand has already moderated the pace tightening over the last two meetings, as inflation has been on a downward path and Chair Powell has recently acknowledged that a "disinflationary process" has begun [1]. Furthermore, the December dot-plot forecasts a median terminal rate of 5.1%, implying another 50 basis points worth of hikes. [3]

Expectations for a less aggressive Fed and very hawkish stance by the ECB have helped EUR/USD to a four-month recovery, which culminated to the highest levels since April at the start of the month.

The past two weeks though have been negative, due to a repricing in market expectations around the Fed's policy path, fueled by that blockbuster jobs report, the higher than expected latest CPI inflation data and persistent hawkish rhetoric by policymakers.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

At the time of writing, CME's FedWatch Tool assigns the highest probability to a terminal rate of 5.5%, which is more aggressive that the fed's forecast, although still leaving room for cuts towards the end the year. [4]

EUR/USD has been testing the critical 23.6% Fibonacci of the September low/February high advance and daily closes below it can spark a deeper correction to the 38.2% level (1.0481-51). However, the downside seems well protected and we struggle to see a steeper slump that would breach the ascending trendline form the September lows (1.0290).

Despite the recent slide, EUR/USD is resilient and has defended the critical 23.6% Fibonacci support three times already. So far, this is a limited correction that allows the common currency to strike back and challenge 1.1067, but will likely need a catalyst for that.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 15 Feb 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is230202~4313651089.en.html

3

Retrieved 15 Feb 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf

4

Retrieved 02 Mar 2024 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

${getInstrumentData.name} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${getInstrumentData.exchange}

${getInstrumentData.bid} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}
Disclosure

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.