Despite hawkish releases, USDOLLAR still to show definitive trend change
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FXCM's USDOLLAR has charted a lower peak followed by a lower trough. This is a defined down trend.
The basket hasn't broken the pattern of peaks and troughs in the last three weeks. The greenback is still in downtrend. A rally above 12,987 (green horizontal) will break this paradigm.
Last week's candle is a spinning top. This is a candle of uncertainty. Bulls and bears tried to take price up and down, but both were rejected, with price closing relatively flat on the week.
The RSI also remains on the bearish side of 50 (green rectangle), although it is nearing a crossover point.
We cannot dismiss the possibility of a trend change. The Fed will be worried about the stickiness of inflation. Rate hikes are still the order of the day. This means that the green horizontal is certainly susceptible to being taken. However, despite all the hawkishness since the blowout NFP release, the greenback is yet to show definitive signs of primary trend strength.
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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