Core PCE higher than previous, but lower than forecast, results in uncertain market action
Source: www.tradingview.com
The Fed's preferred indicator of inflation, the core PCE printed at 5.1% YoY, higher than the previous release of 4.9% YoY. This increase is because everyday items such as food and medical care cost more. Next week the Fed is expected to increase interest rates by another 75bps.
The real rate charted a spinning top (red arrow) on the H1 chart following the release, indicating confusion. This uncertainty might be because although the actual was higher, it came in lower than the forecasted 5.2% YoY.
FXCM's USDOLLAR followed the real rate by also charting a spinning top (green arrow). We continue to watch the real rate for potential directional cues.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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