US Open – 21 February 2023 (Video)
Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the UK PMI beat that lifted GBP/USD, hawkish minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the narrowing differential between the Fed and the ECB and more
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Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the UK PMI beat that lifted GBP/USD, hawkish minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the narrowing differential between the Fed and the ECB and more
Last week’s CPI and PPI release show a stickiness to inflation. The market seems to be coming around to the Fed’s view whilst several Fed officials talk up interest rates. This week the Fed’s minutes will be released on Wednesday and Friday sees the all-important core PCE release. Join FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss these and more.
Sticky inflation persists. The prices of median goods and services have ticked up. This slow change of prices is a headache for the Federal Reserve. They will worry that inflation expectations have anchored to an elevated level.
Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the latest data from the US that put pressure on Wall Street, the lower than expected UK inflation and its impact on GBP/USD, the recent earnings releases and more
Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the just released US CPI inflation data and the reaction of EUR/USD and NAS100, insights on Disney’s recent quarterly results and more
Core inflation dropped to 5.6% y/y, down from the previous print of 5.7% y/y. The decline gives way gradient (blue circle) and missed the consensus of 5.5% y/y. It is moving in the right direction.
FXCM's 2023 outlook webinar, hosted by senior market specialists Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.
The market has been resilient despite the poor showing. This is telling. Dow Theory maintains that a bull market has three phases. The first phase, accumulation, sees smart money recognising the current poor conditions, but positioning for the turn up. Bids increase as selling volumes diminish. There is a feeling of pessimism. However, prices have stopped going down. This matches with current resiliency.
The non-farm employment change shows that the labour market is slowing but still resilient. This week will see CPI and retail sales released. Tightening seems to be making an impact. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday with Australian employment data and UK GDP and industrial production out on Thursday. Q1 earning seasons is set to kick off this week with airlines and banks.
The 517K non-farm payroll surprised the market. This beat the most bullish forecasts. However, not all may be as it seems.
Powell’s interview saw market volatility, but prices popped with the Fed chair not sounding any more aggressive about raising interest rates.
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