AUD/USD Downbeat in the Aftermath of RBA’s Hold, Awaits US NFPs
AUD/USD Analysis
The pair started the week on the offensive, as the surprise decision by a series of OPEC countries to cut oil production sent prices higher [1], boosting commodity currencies. The rally however proved short-lived, since it was contained by 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2023 high/low drop and the outcome of RBA's policy meeting sent it lower on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 3.6%, after ten consecutive rate hikes, even though it did not close the door to further tightening [2]. A day later, Governor Lowe noted that the decision to hold rates "does not imply" that increases are over. [3]
Moreover, broader sentiment has deteriorated over the last couple of days, as a series of disappointing US jobs data have sparked fresh dears of recession. Now markets await today's weekly jobless claims and mainly Friday's NFPs that can affect the trajectory of the pair.
The three-day slide puts AUD/USD in a precarious position and the rejection of aforementioned 38.2% Fibonacci creates scope for fresh 2023 lows (0.6563). However, a fresh catalyst may be required for such outcome that would bring 0.6433 in the spotlight.
On the other hand, elevated oil prices, the fact that the RBA has left the door open to more tightening market pricing for cuts by the Feed could help contain the fall. A recovery effort and another crack at 0.6790 cannot be ruled out, but the upside looks unfriendly and we struggle to see sustained strength under current conditions.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 05 Apr 2023 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7120.htm | |
| Retrieved 05 Apr 2023 https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-08.html | |
| Retrieved 21 Apr 2026 https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-04-05.html |
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