UKOil remains in uptrend despite pullback
Pullback may set up a "dip in the uptrend" scenario.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Page 34 of 115
Pullback may set up a "dip in the uptrend" scenario.
The US 10-year real rate has supported FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket. As the real rate has moved up, so has the USDOLLAR. The correlation coefficient between the two is a robust 84%. This is not surprising. The higher real yield is likely to exert pressure on the risk side of the market, with the dollar benefitting as a safe-haven.
Bitcoin is down about 1.8% today due to concerns about risky investments following the Federal Reserve's statement and press conference. In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has dropped to trade at $26,660. This decline was driven by the Fed's decision to keep interest rates the same but hinted at possible rate increases. As a result, Bitcoin has returned to the familiar range around $26,000, which has been…
Weakness is starting to seep into the NAS100, with the index charting a lower peak.
The Federal Reserve's policy committee decided to keep its interest-rate target unchanged yesterday and expressed confidence in the ongoing strength of the economy. They conveyed a hawkish message regarding the near and medium term.
Today’s FOMC statement and press conference will affect financial markets, with its tone being of particular importance. The market wants to know how long rates will be at elevated levels.
Gold is resilient ahead of the FOMC policy meeting.
The effects of the strike are starting to be felt, with FXCM’s US Automobiles basket starting to show signs of pressure.
Bitcoin’s green 5-day EMA is above its orange 10-day EMA. This puts the EMAs into bullish formation. Moreover, its stochastic has pushed above 80 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains at this level, the higher the probability of further price increases.
Oil prices are rising today due to concerns about a potential supply shortage. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced they would continue reducing their oil production until the end of the year.
The US 10-year real yield’s green 5-day EMA has pulled away from its orange 10-year EMA (black circle). This is suggestive of strength in the real yield, which is currently trading at 2%. This is elevated and is providing a layer of support for FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.