Gold is Under Pressure but is Oversold in the Short-Term
A gold price top-down analysis.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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A gold price top-down analysis.
Tesla has delivered fewer cars than expected over Q3. Wall Street estimates were at 455,000 units, but the company only delivered 435,059 units. Analysts have been progressively lowering their expectations due to slowing demand in China. However, part of the issue also revolved around production, with the company producing only 430.488 units.
The spread between the US 10-year bond and the Japanese 10-year bond continues to widen. This is the primary driver of the USDJPY currency pair. The correlation coefficient between the two is a remarkably robust 90%.
Rivian shares are gaining after the company was upgraded from hold to buy.
The US 10-year real yield remains elevated at the start of the week. This is putting pressure on the risk market and supporting the dollar as the current preferred haven. The question is how much higher can yields run?
The USDCAD has charted a higher trough. This is a show of strength and lays the platform for a potential higher peak for the currency pair.
Bitcoin soared by 3.8% on Sunday. Most of the gain came within a 15-minute window with BTCUSD jumping from $27,233 to $27,880. The cryptocurrency is now trading near $28,290. There does not seem to be an outright catalyst for the move, with many market participants referring to “Uptober.”
The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation is showing signs of moderation. Core PCE came in at 3.9% y/y, which was lower than last month’s 4.3% y/y. On a monthly basis, core PCE printed at 0.1% m/m, which was lower than the 0.2% m/m expected. This shows that the Fed’s efforts are yielding results, because the monthly number annualises to 1.2%, which is lower than the central bank’s target of…
Yesterday, Nike reported better than expected profit for the 3 months ended 31 August (the company’s fiscal first quarter). However, it just missed on Wall Street’s revenue expectations. EPS came in at 94 cents vs. 75 cents estimated, with revenue at $12.94 billion against a forecast of $12.98 billion.
The US real benchmark yield is normalising from an overbought condition. This is rippling through the market, with FXCM’s USDOLLAR also pulling back from an overbought condition. The corollary to this is that the EURUSD is also reacting.
A key driver of the financial markets is the higher real benchmark yield.
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