Russell Shor

On a longer-term basis, bitcoin has reestablished its uptrend. It has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak on its monthly chart.

Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in at 3.7% y/y, lower than the previous (and revised) month’s 3.8% y/y. On a monthly basis the reading was 0.3%, which annualises to 3.66%, which is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Generally, these numbers matched market expectations.

The SPX500 has charted a series of lower peaks followed by lower troughs on its weekly chart. This puts the weekly into a defined downtrend. Importantly, the down trend’s trendline has shifted down from the green trendline to the orange trendline. This indicates that the downtrend is accelerating. It is not surprising to see the weekly RSI on the bearish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains below…

Microsoft’s financial results for the September quarter came in better than expected. Part of this was due to the company’s cloud computing business. Importantly its Azure cloud business was up 28% on a constant currency basis, better than the 25%-26% company forecast. Of the 28%, three percentage points came from AI services, which bodes well for Microsoft (MSFT.us) as its AI offering are weighted towards the second half of the…

Bond yields may be near their peak or may have already peaked. If so, and the path of least resistance is down, there are ramifications.

Using UKOil (FXCM’s Brent CFD) as a general reference, the heat that drove oil prices in August and September has declined. The stochastic, a measure of momentum, has dropped below 80 and is angled down (red rectangle). Last week’s candle looks to have charted a lower peak, hinting at the cooling down in the energy market. However, to confirm the lower peak, this week’s candle will need to close below…

The market seems to be cheering Netflix’s (NFLX.us) Q3 results. Released after the market close last week Wednesday, 18 October, the Q3 results showed that nearly 8.8m net new subscribers were added for the quarter. This is the highest number in years.

Gold has been running hot since hostilities began between Israel and Hamas on 7 October. In effect, the market is favouring it as a safe haven given the intricacies of the conflict and the danger that it may spread regionally. To this end, XAUUSD has broken above its green sloping downtrend line and its weekly RSI has popped above 50, which is the bullish side of the indicator. If the…

After briefly moving above 5% the US 10-year yield has retreated and is currently yielding 4.81%. Technically, there is a divergence between the 10-year yield and its RSI. This suggests that momentum may be slowing and that the yield correction may extend.

Tesla released its Q3 earnings yesterday, which were weak and included downbeat comments from CEO Elon Musk. Company adjusted EPS was 66c with disappointing gross margins (excluding regulatory credit sales) of 16.3%. This was lower than the Wall Street estimate of 70c and 17.5% respectively. Operating margin was 7.6%, almost 10% lower than 2022’s comparable.

Bitcoin is well off its high for the week (red arrow). It reached around $30,000 before pulling back and is currently trading near $28,450. However, the weekly chart does have positive aspects to it.