Economies

  • Weekly Market Recap: November 22-26

    Key Developments US Stock markets were out on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday and on Friday they are due for an early close. WHO's warning on a new Covid variant that has been reported from the African continent , came to dominate a busy week, as it sparked a risk-off wave that sent investors towards safe-haven assets. On Wednesday, amidst a large number of economic releases, US Core PCE…

  • EURUSD Primary Trend Analysis

    The Primary Trend The EURUSD monthly below (chart 1) has charted a lower peak followed by a lower trough - the classical definition of a downtrend. Due to the longer time scale, the primary trend for EURUSD is down. Until there is a change in the pair's primary trend, impulse moves down will be stronger than corrective moves up on the lower time frames. The stochastic is heading towards the…

  • Yields Jump On Astounding Initial Jobless Claims Number

    US10Y At Neckline Source: www.tradingview.com Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The US10-Yr Treasury yield is up sharply for the week, currently trading at 1.68%. The nominal rate is now trading at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break above the neckline will effectively complete the reversal pattern and signal that the market is pricing in higher real yields, inflation, or…

  • UKOil Top-Down Analysis

    Weekly Chart Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above is FXCM's proxy for Brent, UKOil, on a weekly scale. From the mid-August low to the mid-October high, UKOil appreciated around 32%. We have used this impulse move for our reference trough (T) and reference peak (P). Since reaching P, UKOil has retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level (black horizontal). This level is currently…

  • Gold’s November Head-Fake Puts Pressure on Longer Term Outlook

    Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The blue vertical is the beginning of November. The precious metal started the month poorly. By the 3rd of November, gold was down about 1.3% (month open to low). However, it charted a reference trough, and almost 48 hours later, it charted the required reference peak. With these two points as an anchor, the precious metal charted a series…

  • USDOLLAR Mark-Up Phase Is Well Underway

    Introduction Since the pandemic high of 2020, the USDOLLAR has followed a structured cycle. There are four distinct phases. 1. Distribution phase. 2. Mark-down phase. 3. Accumulation phase. 4. Mark-up phase. Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. Distribution Phase This phase was uncharacteristically quick. As the pandemic unfolded, margin calls and the demand for dollars by debt-laden emerging economies drove the USD price up. However,…

  • EURUSD H4 Chart Suggests Current Rally Faces Headwinds

    EURUSD Price Action For November Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above considers the EURUSD H4 scale. The vertical line marks 1 November. Area 1 shows that the month had a bullish start to it, climbing near 65 pips. However, this was short-lived, as the EURD plunged for 10 candlesticks before finding support and rebounding (area 2). However, it stopped short of area…

  • EURGBP Slammed As Rate Expectations Reflect in Spreads

    UK core inflation printed at 3.4% y/y, higher than the 3.1% forecast. For the Euro, core came in at 2% y/y, less than the consensus of 2.1%. There is also very different communication from each's central bank. At the monetary policy report hearing on Monday, BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, admitted to being "very uneasy' about inflation. Although the BoE did not raise rates at the last meeting, there were two…

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