Live NFP trade - 05 May 2023
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Live NFP trade - 05 May 2023
The US Fed hiked rates again on Wednesday, but opened the door to a hold, helping Copper prices, as markets digest prospect of economic slowdown
The US central bank hiked rates by another 0.25% to what could be the terminal level, but did take more moves off the table, balancing between financial stress and persistent inflation
The bond market's recession indicator has been signalling an incoming downturn for several months, which could start this quarter. This is based on the inverted Treasury yield curves, specifically the spread between the 2-10 yields, and the spread between the 3-month and 10-year yields.
United States core PCE printed at 4.6% y/y and the previous number was revised higher to 4.7% y/y. The annual change has a lower peak (LP) followed by a lower trough (LT) and its ROC is on the deceleration side of zero. This needs to maintain for the disinflation process to unfold towards target. However, the monthly core PCE came in at 0.3%, which is 3.66% annualised – still high…
UK headline CPI came in above 10%; forecasts were for a single digit print. EUR CPI also suggest sticky elements to inflation. ECB and Fed official’s commentary were hawkish in nature. The job market is still tight but initial unemployment claims have started to tick up. Markets will be looking at US GDP and core PCE for direction. This week includes Government Ueda’s first BoJ meeting and it is a…
The latest data shows that the LEI declined by 1.2% in March to 108.4. This follows a decline of 0.5% in February. From September 2022 to March 2023, the LEI was down 4.5%, which is steeper than the 3.5% decline for the previous six months.
Given the size of its contribution to GDP, monitoring the health of consumption is important. By and large there are worrying signs. Total vehicle sales and underemployment are showing fragility in terms of their momentum and chain store sales are negative. The existing homes sales series has bounced somewhat but is yet to pass the threshold implying an underlying positive momentum. Consumer sentiment has turned positive but there is a…
The Chinese GDP grew by 4.5% y/y in the first quarter, which along with other upbeat data today, show that the economic recovery maintains its momentum
In March, retail sales decreased by 1%, surpassing economists' predictions for a 0.4% decline. This suggests that consumers are feeling the impact of a more challenging economic climate. There was a decline in purchases of big-ticket items such as motor vehicles. This suggests that higher interest rates are causing the economy to lose momentum at the end of the first quarter. The previous month's data was revised, indicating that retail…
Gold has breached the psychological $2,000 level and has an underlying positive momentum. The precious metal was up over 7% in March with its all-time high of 2,074 now in sight. It’s appreciated over 25% since its November 2021 low.
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