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The Fed and BoE both hike by 75 bps but their tonality contrast with each other. RBA shows conservativeness, with central bank signs of slowing down in some regions. NFP leads to an odd market reaction and critical inflation data this Thursday. Into this mix, we also have the US mid-terms. All this and more.
The commodity opened the new week on the back foot amidst trade worries and China’s commitment to the zero-Covid policy
The central bank raised rated by 75 basis points, its largest move in thirty-three years, but softened its language as it expects prolonged recession
A policy rate above neutral is, in effect, a contractionary monetary policy. Given that the Fed may only have just hit neutral, the Fed's hawkishness is understandable. Chair Powell admitted as such, saying that "the level of interest rates will...be higher than previously expected."
The US Federal Reserve delivered another 75 bps rate increase and pointed to a moderation in the pace of tightening, but ruled out a pause, sparking two-way action and volatility in markets
Australian CPI Inflation climbed to the highest levels since 1990 in the third quarter of the year (y/y), helping AUD/USD extend Tuesday’s advance
Oil prices are subdued at the start of this week, unable to get a lift from Monday’s strong Q3 GDP from the world’s second largest consumer
After a tumultuous week and U-turns from the British government, the newly appointed finance minister, announced further changes to the fiscal plans
Yesterday's CPI print surprised to the upside. Headline CPI came in at 8.2% y/y against an expectation of 8.1% y/y. However, core CPI is up 6.6% from a year ago. This print matched the previous release and is the fastest rate of change since 1982.
The real rate uptrend remains valid, and the upward green trendline defines its momentum. In this vein, a pullback to test this momentum will be compelling, given the Fed's current aggressive monetary policy. As such, and until proven otherwise, a dip in the yield uptrend remains our preferred scenario.
Australia’s central bank raised interest rates again today, but the 0.25% move was smaller than expected and constituted a step back from the larger hikes in the previous four meeting
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