Economies

HKG33 finds support after consumer prices accelerated in November, but deflation fears persist

Oil prices fell over 4% as Israeli airstrikes in Iran avoided oil facilities, calming supply fears. Rising production levels have also added to oversupply pressures on the market.

Copper gets a double boost, since after the Fed’s jumbo cut, its Chinese counterpart announced a series of stimulus measures, including support for the ailing property sector

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates today, but there’s still debate about how much they’ll cut. Markets are leaning towards a half-point cut, with a 63% chance according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This decision comes at a tricky time, as stocks are near record highs, and a smaller cut could create uncertainty. JPMorgan says a quarter-point cut might dampen investor confidence, while BlackRock believes a larger…

Inflation data is taking centre stage this week as attention shifts from the slowing labour market. Economists expect the producer price index (PPI) for July to rise by 0.2%, similar to June's figures, indicating a modest annual increase. This stability suggests the Federal Reserve might consider cutting rates in September.

Last week saw significant market volatility due to worries over economic growth, yen carry trade issues, and a tech stock selloff. The S&P 500 initially dropped but recovered slightly, ending the week down 0.04% while maintaining a 12.04% gain for the year. Oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions, copper fell due to growth concerns, and gold slipped as traders took profits. Key upcoming data, including July’s CPI and Retail Sales,…

This year the stock market has generally enjoyed a period of stability often described as a "Goldilocks" economy, which has avoided the extremes of overheating or stagnation. However, recent economic data has sparked concerns of a downturn. The July jobs report revealed a modest addition of 114,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years. This, combined with earlier signs of slowing consumer spending…

The Chinese central bank went on a rate cut spree this week, showing urgency to support the economy, but markets were unimpressed and HKG33 extended its losses

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent inflation data has increased confidence that price growth is moving towards the 2% target, noting progress and a focus on labour market cooling. On 11 July, government data showed a decline in the consumer price index and a year-over-year pace slowing to 3%, a positive sign for potential interest-rate cuts in 2024.

China's economy grew at a slower-than-expected annual rate of 4.7% in the last quarter, falling short of the 5.3% growth seen in the first quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics noted that progress this year has been challenging due to weak global economic momentum, persistent inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient domestic demand. Despite these challenges, the economy achieved a 5% growth rate in the first half of the year, matching…

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected, which is likely to bolster the Federal Reserve's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to the 2% target. This has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September to 81.3%. June's CPI report was notably soft, with headline inflation falling 0.1% month-on-month, contrary to the predicted rise of 0.1%. Core CPI increased by only 0.1% MoM,…