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Inflation data is taking centre stage this week as attention shifts from the slowing labour market. Economists expect the producer price index (PPI) for July to rise by 0.2%, similar to June's figures, indicating a modest annual increase. This stability suggests the Federal Reserve might consider cutting rates in September.
Last week saw significant market volatility due to worries over economic growth, yen carry trade issues, and a tech stock selloff. The S&P 500 initially dropped but recovered slightly, ending the week down 0.04% while maintaining a 12.04% gain for the year. Oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions, copper fell due to growth concerns, and gold slipped as traders took profits. Key upcoming data, including July’s CPI and Retail Sales,…
This year the stock market has generally enjoyed a period of stability often described as a "Goldilocks" economy, which has avoided the extremes of overheating or stagnation. However, recent economic data has sparked concerns of a downturn. The July jobs report revealed a modest addition of 114,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years. This, combined with earlier signs of slowing consumer spending…
The Chinese central bank went on a rate cut spree this week, showing urgency to support the economy, but markets were unimpressed and HKG33 extended its losses
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent inflation data has increased confidence that price growth is moving towards the 2% target, noting progress and a focus on labour market cooling. On 11 July, government data showed a decline in the consumer price index and a year-over-year pace slowing to 3%, a positive sign for potential interest-rate cuts in 2024.
China's economy grew at a slower-than-expected annual rate of 4.7% in the last quarter, falling short of the 5.3% growth seen in the first quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics noted that progress this year has been challenging due to weak global economic momentum, persistent inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient domestic demand. Despite these challenges, the economy achieved a 5% growth rate in the first half of the year, matching…
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected, which is likely to bolster the Federal Reserve's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to the 2% target. This has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September to 81.3%. June's CPI report was notably soft, with headline inflation falling 0.1% month-on-month, contrary to the predicted rise of 0.1%. Core CPI increased by only 0.1% MoM,…
Treasury yields remained stable as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's twice-yearly report on the economy to Capitol Hill. Powell is set to address the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs at 10 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, followed by the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday, where he is expected to face tough questions.
The latest US jobless claims data shows a slightly higher-than-expected 238,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending 15 June, indicating a potentially softening labour market. Although this figure is down from the previous week's total, the four-week moving average of claims remains elevated at 232,750, suggesting a labour market that's losing momentum.
A fiscal cliff is any series of potential economic events and factors that could combine to cause a severe and sudden economic downturn.
The measure of an economy's increase in production.
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