USD/JPY extends post-intervention rebound
The pair regains its upside bias, rebounding from the likely FX intervention by Japanese authorities, but challenges still loom.
Forex is an over-the-counter (OTC) marketplace where the currencies of the world are traded. In contrast to other prominent financial centers, forex facilitates trade without a centralized exchange, implementing an exclusively digital platform. Limited barriers of entry, ease of transaction and high market liquidity are its calling cards. Easily the world's largest market, the average daily traded volume in forex dominates all other global marketplaces. For April 2016, daily volume measured more than US$5 trillion in value, according to BIS. Of that amount, trade of major global currencies such as the United States dollar (USD), euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY)…
The pair regains its upside bias, rebounding from the likely FX intervention by Japanese authorities, but challenges still loom.
The pair posts a steep decline today, raising fresh intervention speculation after last week's reported action, but that may not be enough to provide lasting support for the yen.
The Australian central bank raised rates again to contain rising inflation driven by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, but its tightening runway is getting shorter.
USDJPY spiked above 160 before crashing back to the mid-150s amid strong verbal warnings from Japanese officials, with markets interpreting the move as likely intervention, making 160 a de facto policy red line regardless of official confirmation.
The pair drops on the lack of upside surprises in the data, but intensifying price pressures support the case for another RBA hike and the pair's bullish bias.
The Bank of Japan held rates in a divided decision and raised its inflation forecasts, pushing the pair lower, but the upside bias remains intact.
The US dollar is currently moving alongside oil, driven more by geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations than traditional fundamentals, creating a volatile, two-way market with no clear direction.
The pair tries to surpass pivotal resistance as the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone than its US peer amid inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict.
The central bank of Australia delivered a back-to-back increase as the spike in energy prices can push inflation higher, but the Aussie was volatile as four of nine voters opted for a hold.
Ahead of next week's Fed and BoJ decisions, the pair rises to nearly two-year highs as the greenback attracts risk-off demand while the yen fails to benefit.
Strong Australian growth boosts chances of another RBA rate hike but the pair remains under pressure on safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
These materials constitute marketing communication and do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, investment experience or current financial situation. The content is provided as general market commentary and should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice, investment recommendation and/or a solicitation for any investment transactions. This market communication does not imply or impose an obligation on you to perform an investment transaction and/or purchase investment products or services. These materials have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and are not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
FXCM, and any of its Affiliates, shall not in any way be liable to you for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions, regardless of cause, in the content of these materials, or for any damages (whether direct or indirect) which may arise from the use of such materials, services and their content. Consequently, any person acting on them does so entirely at their own risk. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.