Why Japan Can Slow the Yen’s Fall but Probably Can’t Stop It
The yen's weakness reflects economic fundamentals that intervention alone cannot overcome.
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The yen's weakness reflects economic fundamentals that intervention alone cannot overcome.
The pair strengthens further amid rising Fed rate hike bets and cautious tightening by the BoJ, but FX intervention risks loom.
The central bank of Australia kept rates at 4.35% as expected and pointed to a potentially prolonged hold, but maintained its tightening bias.
The pair regains its upside bias, rebounding from the likely FX intervention by Japanese authorities, but challenges still loom.
The pair posts a steep decline today, raising fresh intervention speculation after last week's reported action, but that may not be enough to provide lasting support for the yen.
The Australian central bank raised rates again to contain rising inflation driven by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, but its tightening runway is getting shorter.
USDJPY spiked above 160 before crashing back to the mid-150s amid strong verbal warnings from Japanese officials, with markets interpreting the move as likely intervention, making 160 a de facto policy red line regardless of official confirmation.
The pair drops on the lack of upside surprises in the data, but intensifying price pressures support the case for another RBA hike and the pair's bullish bias.
The Bank of Japan held rates in a divided decision and raised its inflation forecasts, pushing the pair lower, but the upside bias remains intact.
The US dollar is currently moving alongside oil, driven more by geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations than traditional fundamentals, creating a volatile, two-way market with no clear direction.
The pair tries to surpass pivotal resistance as the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone than its US peer amid inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict.
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