Economies

Oil surges, USDOLLAR breaks higher, gold hesitates and SPX500 rotates as the Fed takes centre stage.

UKOil’s overheated July rally has hit a geopolitical reality check, with $85-$86 now deciding whether the uptrend survives or unravels.

The latest soft inflation print may help the Fed avoid a rate hike on Wednesday, but the US-Iran conflict sustains upside risks, fuelling uncertainty around the outcome.

UKOil’s bullish technical breakout is reinforced by renewed Hormuz supply risks, although weak demand remains a key counterweight.

UKOil is bullish above $82 but faces key resistance at $86, with the next move likely determined by whether Hormuz tensions escalate or ease.

The BoK raised rates for the first time in over three years as surging chip exports fuel inflation and growth, in a shift that could help contain won weakness.

Softer-than-expected US inflation, tempered by Fed Chair Warsh's caution, is driving sharply divergent and technically pivotal moves across oil, the dollar, gold, and Japanese equities.

Gold’s near-term direction will depend on whether CPI, Warsh and Hormuz push real yields and the dollar higher or lower.

Oil, USDOLLAR, XAUUSD and SPX500 now hinge on the same key drivers, including Fed tone, yields and geopolitical risk.

UKOil remains bearish below $75, with oversold conditions allowing for a bounce but softer supply fundamentals keeping $70.50 at risk unless Hormuz disruption revives the geopolitical premium.

Oil, natural gas, copper, silver and gold will be in the spotlight in the second half of the year amid shifting fundamental drivers.