Russell Shor

The SPX500 is up close to 15% since its March low of around 3,800. However, the VIX, which is commonly referred to the fear index may be suggesting caution.

The Central Bank of Turkey raised interest rates to 15%, from 8.5%. This pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels since late 2021. This is a stark turnaround of policy from President Tayyip Edogan’s unorthodox economic policies, which saw rate cuts in the face of higher inflation.

On Wednesday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a lawsuit against Amazon, accusing the leading e-commerce giant of deliberately deceiving countless customers to enroll in its Prime service and actively impeding their efforts to terminate their subscriptions.

UK inflation has come in higher than consensus. Headline CPI printed at 8.7%, higher than the 8.4% anticipated and core CPI was 7.1%, as opposed to the 6.8% expected. Headline inflation should decline over the next few months as base effects kick in. However, core inflation is likely to prove more resilient.

Gold has dipped and is testing its underlying support around the $1,940 area. Moreover, the precious metal is pushing into its bearish channel, between the lower blue and red bands. Its RSI, which is a momentum oscillator, is on the bearish side of 50.

Last week saw the Fed’s hawkish pause. This week will bring it back into the spotlight as Fed Chair Powell presents two days of Congressional testimony regarding the central bank's policy on interest rates. On Wednesday, he will address the House Financial Services Committee, followed by the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

The hourly chart pulled back to the 38.2% Fibonacci and price support around the 1.0908 level. This served as a short-term platform for buyers to regroup.

With the stabilisation of prices comes the question as to whether UKOil is being distributed or accumulated?

The GBPUSD weekly has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak. This puts the forex pair into an uptrend. The weekly RSI is on the bullish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer it persists on this side, the greater the likelihood of further primary trend appreciation.

The ECB has lifted its main refinancing rate and deposit rate by 25bps to 4% and 3.5% respectively. This was in line with market expectations. The central bank is in on shaky ground given that the region is in technical recession. However, the ECB is firmly focusing on its fight against inflation. EU core inflation has shown signs of moderation lately (green arrow), but its rate of change (ROC) is…

The Federal Reserve (Fed) halted rate hikes yesterday, after 10 consecutive rate rises over 15 months. In effect, the Fed has chosen to evaluate the impact its rate rises are having. Nevertheless, it indicates that the central bank has made headway in addressing inflation.