Russell Shor

TSLA.us is up 145% since its January low. The stock is benefiting from enthusiasm around tax credits, its charging network, and the Cybertruck.

China CPI and PPI disappointed last week. This week US CPI will be released on Tuesday and the Fed statement is scheduled for Wednesday. The market is pricing in a pause but given the RBA and BoC surprise hikes last week, it is going to be close. Thursday has the ECB expected to hike by 25 bps and Friday will see the BoJ Policy Rate announcement. Tune in to this…

There is generally a positive relationship between FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket and the US fixed income market. Therefore, it is surprising that the USDOLLAR charted a lower peak whilst the US 2-year note’s momentum increased (as represented by the shift up in trendline on the top chart).

Netflix has moved passed its accumulation phase into a mark-up phase. It is trading above its black 200-day simple moving average, and, importantly, the SMA is pointing up. We have added On Balance Volume (OBV) as the indicator underneath the price chart. Volume is a measure of supply and demand. In this case both the price and OBV are coordinated and trending up. According to OBV theory, this connotes that…

The SPX500 is trading more than 20% from its October low. It is generally considered that a 20% increase off a recent low suggests a bull market, whilst a 20% decline connotes a bear market. This definition may be considered loose, and filters need to be applied so that whipsaws do not continuously swing it between bull and bear market. E.g., typically, another 10% move in the opposite direction is…

The NAS100 is a growth index and is generally sensitive to interest rates. There are concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs higher for longer and this is currently impacting the index.

The USDOLLAR has continued to move inside its neutral channel this week.

According to a Bloomberg report, state-owned banks in Turkey have ceased their efforts to support the lira through expensive dollar sales. This change in approach could indicate the new finance minister's commitment to implementing a more "rational economic policy." The report also highlighted that the country's state banks refrain from providing comments on their interventions in the market.

EURUSD showing signs of downside pressure.

Last Friday’s NFP surprised to the upside printing at 339K – 193K was expected. Fed speakers talk about a skip in rate hikes and markets have repriced around this. Saudi Arabia announced a 1 million barrels/day cut for the month of July with an option to extend. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25-bps hike but Bank of Canada is still expected to hold. On Friday we…

The US is predominantly a services-based economy. This makes the ISM non-manufacturing data particularly interesting. May’s figure was released today, printing at 50.3, down from 51.90 for April. This is a five-month low. When the numerical is above 50, companies are experiencing growth and expansion. The prices component of the survey came in at 56.2. This is down from 59.6 in April. The Fed is worried that services-based inflation is…