Russell Shor

United States core PCE printed at 4.6% y/y and the previous number was revised higher to 4.7% y/y. The annual change has a lower peak (LP) followed by a lower trough (LT) and its ROC is on the deceleration side of zero. This needs to maintain for the disinflation process to unfold towards target. However, the monthly core PCE came in at 0.3%, which is 3.66% annualised – still high…

An initial estimate suggests that the German economy has not yet escaped recession, with GDP growth remaining stagnant in the first quarter of the year after a contraction of 0.5% in Q4 2022. Despite the recent rebound in industrial production and improved weather conditions, the German economy remains in danger of recession due to ongoing challenges, including high retail energy prices and the impact of monetary policy tightening. Although industrial…

The Competition and Markets Authority stated in a press release that the acquisition would limit innovation and choice for U.K. gamers in the future.

The SPX500 had charted a higher trough followed by higher peak. This put the index into uptrend. However, the latest chart action has charted a lower peak. Some weakness has crept in, with market participants unwilling to take price higher than the previous higher peak.

FXCM’s CHN50 basket may be charting a top, with a potential head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is a reversal pattern, suggesting a reversal to the downside. We are watching the neckline – a break below will signal the pattern’s completion and will be bearish.

Left shows the daily Ger30 chart. It is positioned in its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. Its RSI is above 50, which is the bullish side of the oscillator. However, the last eight trading sessions have drifted sideways in consolidation. This may be setting up a platform to take prices higher, given the positive indications.

UK headline CPI came in above 10%; forecasts were for a single digit print. EUR CPI also suggest sticky elements to inflation. ECB and Fed official’s commentary were hawkish in nature. The job market is still tight but initial unemployment claims have started to tick up. Markets will be looking at US GDP and core PCE for direction. This week includes Government Ueda’s first BoJ meeting and it is a…

There is an air of uncertainty, with participants unsure of what comes next for markets. A large part of this is that markets are hesitant of how Fed monetary policy plays out and are looking at Q1 GDP and core PCE for direction (released Thursday and Friday at 12:30 GMT).

The latest data shows that the LEI declined by 1.2% in March to 108.4. This follows a decline of 0.5% in February. From September 2022 to March 2023, the LEI was down 4.5%, which is steeper than the 3.5% decline for the previous six months.

Given the lag on the EU inflation front, the ECB will need to be more aggressive than the Fed for at least the medium term. This is reflected in the spread between the German (proxy for EU) and US 2-year notes. This is because short-term borrowing costs react quickly to changes in monetary policy.

Given the size of its contribution to GDP, monitoring the health of consumption is important. By and large there are worrying signs. Total vehicle sales and underemployment are showing fragility in terms of their momentum and chain store sales are negative. The existing homes sales series has bounced somewhat but is yet to pass the threshold implying an underlying positive momentum. Consumer sentiment has turned positive but there is a…