Russell Shor

FXCM's USDOLLAR basket finds itself near the 12,750 level, which is regarded as an important level of support.

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 4.5%, in line with expectations. It was the first major central to pause its hiking cycle. In its rate statement the BoC said that the “Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target.”

Headline CPI came in lower-than-expected printing at 5% y/y (5.2% y/y - forecast) and 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m – forecast). Core CPI, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, came in at 5.6% on an annual basis and 0.4% m/m. The numbers are still above the Fed’s 2% target, but these are signs of moderating inflation

The US Energy Information Administration has raised its forecasts for 2023 and 2024. It expects Brent to average $85.01/barrel in 2023 and $81.21/barrel for 2025. These are increases in forecast of 2.5% and 5% respectively. Expectation for West Texas Intermediate are similar.

The GER30 daily chart is trading in its bullish channel between its upper blue and red bands. It RSI is trading above 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains on the bullish side of 50 the greater the probability of higher prices ahead. The hourly chart shows a strong start to today’s trade. The trend following EMAs and the momentum-based stochastic have turned up (black ellipses). If the stochastic makes…

The USDOLLAR daily chart is trading in its bearish channel between it lower blue and red bands. Its RSI is trading below 50. The longer it maintains on the bearish side of 50, the more pressure will be applied to the greenback. Data out this week has pointed to an economic softening.

Gold has breached the psychological $2,000 level and has an underlying positive momentum. The precious metal was up over 7% in March with its all-time high of 2,074 now in sight. It’s appreciated over 25% since its November 2021 low.

FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket appears to be charting a head and shoulders top. This pattern is a reversal in trend from uptrend to downtrend. The pattern is yet to complete, and we note the pattern completion gap i.e., the price to neckline gap. However, the weekly RSI is below 50 (green rectangle), which suggests a bearish momentum is present. The longer the indicator maintains below 50, the more pressure will be…

As PCE shows signs of moderation, OPEC+ announces supply cut of more than 1m barrels per day from May. FXCM senior market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras discuss its potential impact on inflation. This Friday sees the NFP release and the RBA and RBNZ are due to announce expected rate hikes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. This week also has PMI releases. Please join us for the conversation.

The NAS100 weekly has charted a series of higher troughs (HT) followed by higher peaks. Trendlines are instructive in terms of measuring momentum. In this regard, the trendline gradient has shifted up from green to orange. I.e., the momentum of the NAS100’s trend has accelerated. The RSI indicator is above 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains on the bullish side of 50, the higher the likelihood of further price…

It fell to 50, which separates expansion from contraction for February, from 51.60, which was an eight-month high.