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UK core inflation printed at 3.4% y/y, higher than the 3.1% forecast. For the Euro, core came in at 2% y/y, less than the consensus of 2.1%. There is also very different communication from each's central bank. At the monetary policy report hearing on Monday, BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, admitted to being "very uneasy' about inflation. Although the BoE did not raise rates at the last meeting, there were two…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com In the monthly chart above we show the long term relative strength between the major financial markets post the pandemic lows (dashed blue vertical): 1. Stocks [represented by the S&P 500 (SPX)]. 2. Bonds [represented by the iShares 7-10 Treasury ETF (IEF)]. 3. Commodities [represented by the Thomson Reuters CRB Index (TRJEFFCRB)]. The top chart shows the relative strength…
In this article: 1. University of Michigan consumer survey misses consensus. 2. US consumers are gloomy. 3. Inflation is rampant. 4. The Fed may have to pivot on policy. Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the Univesity of Michigan was sobering. US consumers are hurting. Last month's print was 71.7, and 72.5 was the consensus for Friday's number - it came in at a paltry 66.8. Faced with the prospects…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Further to our previous analysis, gold's EMAs are pushing for a more bullish formation. EMAs are trend-following indicators and work under trend conditions. Consolidations tend to lead to whipsaw signals. The shorter-term green EMA has moved into a bullish position, and we are now looking for the mid-term orange EMA to cross above the longer-term red EMA (aqua ellipse). If this…
This is the fourth day of November in which the German index hits new all-time highs, while the European Commission upgraded its growth forecasts for the year
Yesterday, the US headline CPI beat the forecast of 5.8% y/y, coming in at 6.2%. The core CPI, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food also beat at 4.6% (4.3% forecast). As such, nominal yields are adjusting. Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com The chart above shows the Heiken Ashi US10Y. Its yield is a nominal yield i.e. it has an inflation…
The pair enters its third straight losing day and sheds more than 0.5% on the week, having taken a double hit from high US CPI Inflation yesterday and poor Employment data from Australia today
US Consumer Price Index soared in October, with the Core reading rising to 4.6% y/y, compared to 4.0% in September. The pair’s original reaction was lower, as conventional wisdom dictates, but it quickly reacted higher
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Further to our previous article, we consider UKOil's weekly scale (FXCM's proxy for Bent). After a pullback, UKOil has stabilised with the three EMAs (left chart) showing angle and separation. The right chart is also weekly, but we have zoomed in on the price action. A close above last week's high (aqua horizontal) is bullish, charting a reference low. This is…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Source: www.tradingview.com Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the US10Y yield (blue line chart) was in decline. At the same time, the 10Y breakeven inflation rate was coming down. This period is denoted by the red down trendlines. The orange box represents most of the 2020 year, as authorities implemented unprecedented monetary stimulus to deal with the fallout of the pandemic. To…
The commodity comes from two negative weeks, but starts the current one on the offensive, helped by the infrastructure bill that was passed by US Congress over the weekend
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