Intermarket Relationships Show Commodities To Be Strongest
Past performance is not an indicator of future results
Source: www.tradingview.com
In the monthly chart above we show the long term relative strength between the major financial markets post the pandemic lows (dashed blue vertical):
1. Stocks [represented by the S&P 500 (SPX)].
2. Bonds [represented by the iShares 7-10 Treasury ETF (IEF)].
3. Commodities [represented by the Thomson Reuters CRB Index (TRJEFFCRB)].
The top chart shows the relative strength (RS) between stocks and bonds. The RS is between the upper blue and upper red bands - the area of strength for the numerator. Therefore, stocks are outperforming against bonds.
The middle chart shows the relative strength (RS) between stocks and commodities. The RS is between the lower blue and lower red bands - the area of weakness for the numerator. Therefore, stocks are underperforming against commodities.
The lower chart shows the relative strength (RS) between commodities and bonds. The RS is between the upper blue and upper red bands - the area of strength for the numerator. Therefore, commodities are outperforming against bonds.
Please note that the commodity weighting for TRJEFFCRB: Energy: 39%, Agriculture: 41%, Precious Metals: 7%, Base/Industrial Metals: 13%.
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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