The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year compared to Q1, from an 0.8% expansion prior, as today's preliminary data showed. On a yearly basis Q1 GDP grew by a healthy 2.9%, albeit a far cry from the +8.7% previous print.
In June, GDP dropped by 0.6% month-over-month, from May's 0.5% growth. The main driver behind the monthly slump was the 0.5% fall of the Services index. Moreover, Industrial & Manufacturing Production slumped 0.9% and 1.6% month-over-month respectively.
The data dump comes a week after the BoE's gloomy outlook on the economy, since it expects a recession and even higher cost of living - which of course did not prevent it from delivering a historic 0.5% rate increase. Today's figures were mostly poor, but they were largely better than expected.
GBP/USD is pretty much flat today, continuing the consolidation after Wednesday's rally, which was fueled by the softer CPI inflation in the United States. The moderation has made markets less aggressive in regards to the Fed's next move, now seeing a smaller 50 basis points hike in September.
Policy makers however, do not seem ready to stake their next decision on just one data point, with some of them conveying that it is too early to declare victory on the fight against inflation.
The British Pound now has the chance to probe 1.2249, but it may need fresh impetus for that. We are cautious however at this stage for its ability to challenge 1.2400.
Despite the post-CPI advance, GBP/USD is contained by the daily Ichimoku cloud, unable to make headway. This creates risk for renewed pressure towards the ascending trendline from July's 2+ year lows (at around 1.2080), although fresh monthly lows (1.2002) don't look easy in the near term.
The rest of the economic calendar is light and markets will be expecting the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Confidence.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.