AUD/USD - H1
The Aussie started off on a good footing, but dovish comments from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eventually push it into negative territory.
Mr Lowe pushed back against calls for rate hikes, reiterating his view that "the latest data and forecasts do not warrant an increase in the cash rate in 2022" . This highlighted the unfavorable monetary polic divergence between the RBA and its US counterpart – the Fed. Sentiment also seemed to sour after initial positive reaction to the Xi-Biden virtual meeting, which is also detrimental for the pair.
After these developments, it erases earlier gains and breaks back below the EMA100, while the RSI moves below 50. This creates heightened risk for fresh weekly lows (0.7320), although those of the month (0.7275-64) will probably require a catalyst to be breached.
On the other hand, minutes from the last RBA policy decision that were released prior to the governor's speech had supported the pair, as officials acknowledged that "as the risks to the inflation forecast had shifted higher, it had become possible that an earlier increase in the cash rate would be appropriate". 
AUD/USD tries to defend 38.2% Fibonacci (0.7334) of its recent leg up, and as long as it succeeds, it has the ability to push beyond 0.7371, but the next major resistance (0.7432) is remote at this stage.
Investors will now look to US Retail Sales and Industrial Production for impetus.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
Retrieved 16 Nov 2021 https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-gov-2021-11-16.html
Retrieved 16 Nov 2021 https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2021/2021-11-02.html