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- Intel (INTC.us): Momentum is surging for INTC as AI partnerships with Alphabet and Tesla drive a powerful re-rating, though overbought signals point to a tactical buy-the-dip opportunity.
- Oracle (ORCL.us): ORCL is emerging from a prolonged downtrend with improving momentum and a potential technical breakout, while strengthening its AI-driven growth story, making this reset name one to watch as sentiment begins to shift.
- ASML (ASML.nl): ASML approaches a key earnings catalyst with bullish technicals building and AI-driven demand underpinning the story, setting up a potential breakout move if results deliver.

Quick Market Overview

The Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak to nine days, its longest since 2023, with a notable shift in leadership as battered software stocks staged a strong comeback. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, though the Dow lagged slightly. Markets wobbled early on renewed US–Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but investors quickly looked through the noise. The rally broadened as previously out-of-favour tech names rebounded on heavy volume, suggesting more than just short covering and hinting at a repositioning across the market, even as geopolitical risks remain unresolved.

General Equity Market Health (SPX500)

April's bounce has been driven not by a single catalyst, but by a mix of easing geopolitical tension, improving earnings expectations, and a recovery in growth stocks. Markets are beginning to look through the U.S.–Iran conflict, with hopes of de-escalation and softer oil prices helping to reduce worst-case risks. At the same time, rising expectations for Q1 earnings and resilient corporate outlooks have supported sentiment, while strength in tech and AI names has led the move higher.

In short, it's a classic relief rally: the risks remain, but they've stabilised enough for investors to shift their focus back to growth and earnings.

The SPX500 is showing several encouraging technical signals. The index has broken above the key 6,710 level, which now acts as support. After slipping below this level on 18 March, it has taken less than a month to reclaim it, following a strong rebound from the 6,300 support low on 31 March.

The 50-day EMA has also turned higher (blue arrow), indicating that price strength is beginning to drive short-term momentum. Yesterday's session reinforced this shift. The market initially sold off on concerns around President Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade, but buyers stepped in at the lows and pushed the index to close well above the open.

For now, the bulls appear to be in control. Watch the RSI closely. It remains above 50, and as long as it holds that level (blue rectangle), momentum should stay supportive, with scope for a move towards the 7,000 resistance level.

Potential Trade Setups

This week's potential trade setups tilt more decisively toward a risk-on stance, marking a clear shift from the more defensive positioning of recent editions. The improvement in market tone has opened up opportunities across risk assets, but this pivot remains conditional. Any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions could quickly undermine sentiment and push us back toward a more cautious, defensive posture in the weeks ahead.

Intel (INTC.us)

Technical Analysis
- INTC has been on a strong run throughout April.
- The share price is up nearly 50% for the month.
- A likely breakaway gap is evident in the price action (blue arrow), reinforcing bullish momentum.
- Given the rapid rise, it is no surprise that the RSI is above 80 and in overbought territory (blue rectangle).
- As such, a near-term pullback is possible as the RSI normalises.
- A buy-the-dip approach therefore looks sensible.
- Focus on underlying support holding, particularly the 55 level, which marks the last significant high.

Caveat
- A move back below 55 would be a bearish signal.
- If this is accompanied by the RSI falling below 50 and holding, the bullish setup would be invalidated.

Fundamental Perspective
INTC's surge reflects a broader shift in sentiment, with investors increasingly buying into its turnaround story. Momentum has been driven by a mix of factors, including stronger positioning in AI through partnerships with Alphabet Inc. and involvement in projects linked to Tesla, Inc., alongside improving core fundamentals such as rising demand for server CPUs and better pricing in data centres. Strategic moves, including reclaiming control of key manufacturing assets, and a wave of analyst upgrades have reinforced confidence, while a wider recovery in semiconductors and easing geopolitical tensions have added support. The rally suggests the market is starting to view Intel as a credible player in both AI and foundry services, though delivering on that promise remains critical.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL.us)

Technical Analysis
- We are viewing ORCL as a potential value opportunity.
- The stock was in a sustained downtrend from September 2025 to February (red trend).
- Since then, price action suggests a possible accumulation phase (horizontal blue trendline).
- Yesterday, ORCL rallied nearly 13%, reaching its 50-day EMA (black line).
- A decisive break above the EMA, followed by an upward turn of the EMA, would signal a bullish shift.
- This could mark the transition into a mark-up phase.
- Momentum is improving, with RSI breaking above 50 (blue rectangle).
- For confirmation, RSI needs to hold above the 50 level.

Caveat
- 133 remains a key support level.
- A break below 133 would suggest the range is distribution, not accumulation.
- If RSI drops and holds below 50, it would reinforce a distribution scenario.

Fundamental Perspective
At its Customer Edge Summit, Oracle showcased practical AI applications tailored for utility providers, highlighting a clear shift toward real-world use cases. This included Oracle Utilities Opower, which the company says helped residential customers save around $369 million in 2025, demonstrating measurable impact at scale. Enhancements to Oracle Aconex were also presented, with the platform designed to streamline project reviews and reduce errors across large capital projects. Alongside these product developments, Oracle is increasingly positioning itself within the AI infrastructure space, supported by large-scale enterprise deals and continued investment in cloud and energy capacity to meet rising demand. Yesterday's rally may reflect a shift in market sentiment, driven both by these announcements and a broader rebound in software and AI-linked names after a period of weakness. In essence, the stock represents a reset name with potentially improved fundamentals, strong forward demand visibility, and growing exposure to the structural AI theme.

ASML Holding NV (ASML.nl)

Technical Analysis
- ASML has largely been consolidating year to date.
- The RSI is close to breaking its black downtrend line (blue arrow).
- A breakout here would be a constructive signal.
- RSI is also holding firmly above 50.
- The longer it stays above this level, the more supportive it is for price.
- This raises the likelihood of a move through the 1,310 resistance level and a push towards all-time highs.
- The 50-day EMA (black line) has turned higher, suggesting building upside momentum.
- A near-term catalyst is earnings, due tomorrow (15 April) before the US market opens.

Caveat
- If the 1,310 level holds as resistance, it would be a negative signal.
- If RSI fails to break its downtrend line and falls back below 50, bullish momentum would fade.

Fundamental Perspective
ASML heads into earnings with strong momentum, as surging demand for AI chips continues to drive both its share price and expectations. Options markets are signalling a potential sharp move in either direction, with traders positioning for volatility that could push the stock to fresh highs if results impress. The backdrop remains supportive, with chipmakers expanding capacity to meet AI-driven demand, reinforcing confidence in ASML's outlook. Forecasts point to solid growth in both earnings and revenue, and after a strong run this year, the focus is on whether the company can sustain its momentum and justify increasingly elevated expectations.

Hot News, Cold Logic

This edition of AlphaTrack leans more decisively into a risk-on stance, marking a shift from the more cautious tone of recent weeks. The rebound in the broader SPX500 has been encouraging, but risks remain that could challenge this view. One key concern is the growing narrative around AI-driven cannibalisation, where new technologies may begin to disrupt and erode existing software business models. In that respect, software indices still have meaningful ground to recover before signalling that investor confidence has fully returned. Watching for sustained strength in these indices will be an important gauge of broader market sentiment.

Final Thought

Markets are caught between relief and reality: equities are rebounding and oil has slipped back below $100 on fragile hopes of renewed U.S.-Iran dialogue, even as the underlying energy shock, disrupted supply routes and inflation risks remain firmly in place.

For now, markets are trading hope as much as fundamentals, but until geopolitics decisively shifts, this remains a potentially fragile rally, where resilience is emerging yet conviction still rests on headlines rather than certainty.