Russell Shor

The USDOLLAR daily chart is trading in its bearish channel between it lower blue and red bands. Its RSI is trading below 50. The longer it maintains on the bearish side of 50, the more pressure will be applied to the greenback. Data out this week has pointed to an economic softening.

Gold has breached the psychological $2,000 level and has an underlying positive momentum. The precious metal was up over 7% in March with its all-time high of 2,074 now in sight. It’s appreciated over 25% since its November 2021 low.

The gold daily chart has a strong inverse correlation to the USDOLLAR. The correlation coefficient between the two is a hardy -93%. I.e., gold is benefitting as the greenback comes under pressure.

FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket appears to be charting a head and shoulders top. This pattern is a reversal in trend from uptrend to downtrend. The pattern is yet to complete, and we note the pattern completion gap i.e., the price to neckline gap. However, the weekly RSI is below 50 (green rectangle), which suggests a bearish momentum is present. The longer the indicator maintains below 50, the more pressure will be…

As PCE shows signs of moderation, OPEC+ announces supply cut of more than 1m barrels per day from May. FXCM senior market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras discuss its potential impact on inflation. This Friday sees the NFP release and the RBA and RBNZ are due to announce expected rate hikes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. This week also has PMI releases. Please join us for the conversation.

The NAS100 weekly has charted a series of higher troughs (HT) followed by higher peaks. Trendlines are instructive in terms of measuring momentum. In this regard, the trendline gradient has shifted up from green to orange. I.e., the momentum of the NAS100’s trend has accelerated. The RSI indicator is above 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains on the bullish side of 50, the higher the likelihood of further price…

It fell to 50, which separates expansion from contraction for February, from 51.60, which was an eight-month high.

Shares are declining to end a volatile week with further losses, as concerns over the health of banks intensified due to a decline in Deutsche Bank's stock. At the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.6%. Despite Friday's losses, the indexes were expected to finish the week with gains. However, investors remained wary due to the surge in the…

The Federal Reserve's communication contributed to pressure on the dollar. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has taken the spotlight as a market driver. On Wednesday, her announcement on "blanket" bank deposit insurance overshadowed the dovish Fed hike.

The Bank of England has increased its key interest rate by a quarter point, in line with the Federal Reserve's action. The decision was made amid concerns about the health of banks, which have unsettled financial markets worldwide. Despite this threat to financial stability, inflation in the U.K. is still in double digits, which has prompted the need for further policy tightening by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.

The Fed raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%-5%. However, its rhetoric is more dovish than the ECB’s, which is EURUSD supportive. The spread between the German and US 2-year notes (top chart) has charted a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks. This denotes the relative hawkishness of the ECB over the Fed. The EURUSD is sensitive to this spread with a correlation coefficient of 84%.…