Russell Shor

In March, retail sales decreased by 1%, surpassing economists' predictions for a 0.4% decline. This suggests that consumers are feeling the impact of a more challenging economic climate. There was a decline in purchases of big-ticket items such as motor vehicles. This suggests that higher interest rates are causing the economy to lose momentum at the end of the first quarter. The previous month's data was revised, indicating that retail…

JPMorgan chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup beat Q1 estimates.

The USDJPY appears to be charting a head and shoulders top. The pattern is yet to complete, as per the pattern completion gap, but its RSI is on the bearish side of 50. If it maintains on this side of 50, the USDJPY will likely be under pressure.

FXCM's USDOLLAR basket finds itself near the 12,750 level, which is regarded as an important level of support.

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 4.5%, in line with expectations. It was the first major central to pause its hiking cycle. In its rate statement the BoC said that the “Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target.”

Headline CPI came in lower-than-expected printing at 5% y/y (5.2% y/y - forecast) and 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m – forecast). Core CPI, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, came in at 5.6% on an annual basis and 0.4% m/m. The numbers are still above the Fed’s 2% target, but these are signs of moderating inflation

The US Energy Information Administration has raised its forecasts for 2023 and 2024. It expects Brent to average $85.01/barrel in 2023 and $81.21/barrel for 2025. These are increases in forecast of 2.5% and 5% respectively. Expectation for West Texas Intermediate are similar.

Bitcoin has broken above the psychological $30,000, reaching its highest point since the crypto crash last year. The surge has been defining 2023, with Bitcoin up 80% since the start of the year, leading many to suggest a new bull market is underway. Investors are likely to experience "fear of missing out" as a result of the current price trend, which is expected to generate a lot of attention. While…

The non-farm employment change shows that the labour market is slowing but still resilient. This week will see CPI and retail sales released. Tightening seems to be making an impact. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday with Australian employment data and UK GDP and industrial production out on Thursday. Q1 earning seasons is set to kick off this week with airlines and banks.

Bitcoin's rally is largely based on an expectation that the Fed will shift from a tightening policy to possibly cutting rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a potential decline of rates to 4.25% by year-end. In effect, there has been a repricing of rate-hike bets as market participants focus on financial stability risk.

The GER30 daily chart is trading in its bullish channel between its upper blue and red bands. It RSI is trading above 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains on the bullish side of 50 the greater the probability of higher prices ahead. The hourly chart shows a strong start to today’s trade. The trend following EMAs and the momentum-based stochastic have turned up (black ellipses). If the stochastic makes…