Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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The latest data shows that the LEI declined by 1.2% in March to 108.4. This follows a decline of 0.5% in February. From September 2022 to March 2023, the LEI was down 4.5%, which is steeper than the 3.5% decline for the previous six months.
Given the lag on the EU inflation front, the ECB will need to be more aggressive than the Fed for at least the medium term. This is reflected in the spread between the German (proxy for EU) and US 2-year notes. This is because short-term borrowing costs react quickly to changes in monetary policy.
Given the size of its contribution to GDP, monitoring the health of consumption is important. By and large there are worrying signs. Total vehicle sales and underemployment are showing fragility in terms of their momentum and chain store sales are negative. The existing homes sales series has bounced somewhat but is yet to pass the threshold implying an underlying positive momentum. Consumer sentiment has turned positive but there is a…
Bitcoin has dropped to around $29,140 as the markets turn risk-off, which suggests that cryptocurrencies are still sensitive to macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin passed $30,000 last week, hitting close to $31,000, but has struggled to maintain these gains amidst profit-taking and consolidation.
Yesterday saw a higher-than-expected average earnings index (3m/y) out of the UK at 5.9% (vs 5.1%-forecast). Today inflation has proved persistent with headline CPI (y/y) at 10.1% (vs 9.8%-forecast) and core CPI (y/y) at 6.2% (vs 6.0%-forecast). This suggests at least another 25bps hike from the BoE in May.
BAC and GS report q1 earnings
Last week’s FOMC minutes indicate a small recession near year end. Headline CPI declined but core inched up slightly. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations came in higher than previous. China’s GDP beat forecast and UK inflation expected to decrease into single digits. Other regions reporting CPI include Canada, EU, and Japan. Friday sees flash PMIs reported. Banks kicked off Q1 earnings last week with Netflix and Tesla to release this…
Yesterday, the EURUSD slipped from its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. Today, it is looking to reclaim that position. The daily RSI is above 50. The longer it maintains on the bullish side of 50, the greater the chances of higher prices ahead.
GBPUSD has slipped out of its bullish channel and is now trading in the neutral zone between the two blue bands. However, today’s candle (still to complete) shows positivity, with price trading off the low for the day. The daily RSI is above 50 and needs to be watched. If it maintains on the bullish side of 50, the bullish channel, between the upper blue and red bands, may be…
Tesla is set to release its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with investors interested in the impact of recent price cuts on margins and demand for the company's electric vehicles. Analysts predict adjusted earnings of 86 cents a share and sales of $23.8 billion for the quarter.
FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket reacted off its key support level at 12,750. The catalyst for the reaction were comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
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