UKOil stabilises on weekly, but it remains to be seen whether it is being accumulated or distributed

  • UKOil

FXCM's Brent Crude CFD, UKOil, makes for an interesting chart.

UKOil spiked up in early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. It moved sideways at elevated levels until July 2022. Ultimately, this proved to be a distribution zone (red shaded rectangle) that eventually broke down.

UKOil dropped below its black 30-week EMA in July 2022 and in the end the EMA turned down in confirmation as UKOil declined. The instrument evolved from the distribution zone into a markdown phase (downwards green trend channel).

However, from December 2022, the price of UKOil has stabilised (green shaded rectangle), albeit with slight downwards pressure. In effect, the candlesticks remain below the 30-week EMA with the EMA angling down. Moreover, the RSI has mostly remained below 50 (blue rectangle) since UKOil entered its markdown phase.

However, with the stabilisation of prices comes the question as to whether UKOil is being distributed or accumulated?

Accumulation will require:
- UKOil to move above its 30-week EMA and for the EMA to turn up.
- For the RSI to move above 50 and maintain.
- UKOil to break above $85.

Distribution signs:
- UKOil to remain below its 30-week EMA and the EMA continues to head down.
- The RSI to hold below 50.
- UKOil to break below $70.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

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