Forex

USDOLLAR drops to lowest levels since March, as real rate moves below 2%

Russell Shor Written by Russell Shor
  • USDOLLAR
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FXCM's USDOLLAR basket has dropped over 1.13% this month, hitting its lowest levels since March. This decline is primarily due to continued dollar selling following recent disinflationary US price data and coinciding with a decline in the US 10-year real rate to below 2%. Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller indicated that softer US price data has paved the way for potential rate cuts, suggesting a bumpy path ahead. A significant topic this week is the impact of a potential Donald Trump presidency on FX markets. Looser fiscal policy under Trump could steepen the US yield curve and strengthen the dollar. However, Trump's recent criticism of the undervalued Japanese yen and Chinese yuan adds uncertainty. His past actions against China raise concerns about a weak dollar policy if he wins. In the near term, macroeconomic factors will likely drive FX movements.

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Russell Shor

Senior Market Strategist

Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.

Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.

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