NAS100 Re-enters Correction after Mixed NFPs & Ahead of CPI
NAS100 Analysis
The index made a poor September start, as it posted its worst week of the year. AI skepticism persisted, dragging down the tech sector, with the technology SPDR (XLE.us) shedding more than 7% and Nvidia wiping nearly 14%. Friday's mixed NFPs did not help as they did confirm the weakening state of the labor market, but payrolls increased compared to the prior month and unemployment ticked down.
The data did not settle the debate around the size of the Fed's telegraphed rate cut next week. Governor Waller di not add much clarity, saying that he is "open-minded about the size and pace of cuts", [1] leaving markets to their own devices. CME's FedWatch Tool continues to price in at least 100 bps of cuts by the end of the year, but for September the highest probability is assigned to a small 0.25% move. [2]
NAS100 has now slipped back to correction territory risking a drop below the 200Days EMA (blue line), that would make it vulnerable to the August lows (17,251). On the other hand, the latest data still point to soft landing and market are optimistic about aggressive monetary easing. Furthermore, the last correction after the previous NFPs was short-lived and NAS100 is upbeat today above the crucial 200Days EMA. As such, it can find the opportunity to push for the 200EMA (black line), but strong catalyst would be needed for daily closes above it that would pause the negative bias.
Markets now turn to Wednesday's inflation update, the last major report ahead of next week's pivotal Fed decision.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 09 Sep 2024 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html | |
| Retrieved 12 Jun 2026 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240906a.htm |
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