Russell Shor

UKOil’s bullish technical breakout is reinforced by renewed Hormuz supply risks, although weak demand remains a key counterweight.

UKOil is bullish above $82 but faces key resistance at $86, with the next move likely determined by whether Hormuz tensions escalate or ease.

Softer-than-expected US inflation, tempered by Fed Chair Warsh's caution, is driving sharply divergent and technically pivotal moves across oil, the dollar, gold, and Japanese equities.

The SPX500 faces a make-or-break test at 7,580 as cooling momentum, Hormuz-driven inflation risk and Q2 earnings collide.

Gold’s near-term direction will depend on whether CPI, Warsh and Hormuz push real yields and the dollar higher or lower.

NVIDIA’s bullish wedge breakout, improving RSI and potential China reopening strengthen the bullish case, with $204-$206 the key confirmation zone.

FXCM's US.BANKS basket remains technically constructive, but 6,300 is the line in the sand and Q2 earnings now need to confirm the breakout case.

Oil, USDOLLAR, XAUUSD and SPX500 now hinge on the same key drivers, including Fed tone, yields and geopolitical risk.

UKOil remains bearish below $75, with oversold conditions allowing for a bounce but softer supply fundamentals keeping $70.50 at risk unless Hormuz disruption revives the geopolitical premium.

SPX500 is cautiously bullish, but a break above 7,575-7,585 and strong Q2 earnings are needed to sustain further gains.

XAUUSD is attempting to stabilise on softer US payrolls, but remains technically cautious until it breaks the downtrend line and confirms a higher trough and higher peak.