Global Macro and Markets Briefing – 02 November 2026
Resilient growth and AI promise still excite markets, but investors now demand proof that ambition can become sustainable profit.
Resilient growth and AI promise still excite markets, but investors now demand proof that ambition can become sustainable profit.
Resilient US growth is keeping markets afloat, but rising oil prices, persistent inflation and mounting scrutiny of AI spending are testing investor confidence and complicating central bank decisions.
Hotter inflation, surging oil prices and mounting doubts over AI investment returns have unsettled global markets, driving investors towards bonds and defensive assets as central banks confront an increasingly difficult balance between inflation and growth.
The bond market’s warning is clear as rising financing costs, persistent inflation and mounting debt force investors to distinguish between companies profiting from the AI revolution and those struggling to finance it.
Markets remain resilient despite persistent inflation, elevated borrowing costs and growing fiscal risks, leaving investors increasingly vulnerable to disappointing economic data or corporate earnings.
Markets are betting on a soft landing, but bonds, Europe and energy risks are refusing to relax.
September’s bond rout signals a new market reality where higher-for-longer rates may be structural rather than temporary.
AI optimism is supporting equities, but persistent inflation and high bond yields are becoming the bigger threat to markets.
The BoJ raised rates in the fastest tightening cycle since 1990, but two dissenters add a dovish spin and the Nikkei's outlook relies more on the AI boom than monetary policy.
Markets now face a tougher trade-off as resilient growth supports earnings while sticky inflation and higher rates raise the bar for risk assets.
Sticky inflation and a worsening oil supply shock are pushing global markets towards a broader tightening cycle.
Order Execution Only
Regulatory Documents:
CIRO: Avoiding Fraud and Protecting Your Investments, How CIRO Protects Investors, CIRO Complaints Brochure, CIPF Brochure, CIPF Coverage Policy, CIRO Order Execution Only Bulletin, Conflict Disclosure Statement, Covid-19 and Cyber Security - Tips for Investors, Relationship Disclosure Information Document, Notice of Acknowledgment, Before You Begin Trading
The relationship between Friedberg Direct and FXCM was formed with the purpose to allow Canadian residents access to FXCM's suite of products, while maintaining their accounts with a regulated Canadian firm. All accounts are opened by and held with Friedberg Direct, a division of Friedberg Mercantile Group Ltd., a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). Friedberg customer accounts are protected by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund within specified limits. A brochure describing the nature and limits of coverage is available upon request or at www.cipf.ca.
* The percentage of our retail client accounts that were profitable in each of the previous most recent quarters was: Quarter 2, 2026: 30% | Quarter 1, 2026: 40% | Quarter 4, 2025: 49% | Quarter 3, 2025: 37%. These figures are provided for transparency purposes only and do not constitute an indication of future performance or results.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, Friedberg Direct, FXCM or its affiliates takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of Friedberg Direct and FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the Friedberg Direct's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.**