Economies

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com The weekly chart above shows gold (XAUUSD) from the beginning of 2019. The indicator below is the correlation coefficient between the precious metal and the US10Y. For most of this period the correlation has been negative (green rectangle). A reason for this is that bonds and gold are both considered safe-havens. During this period the yield on the US10Y…

The NFP print beat forecast coming in at 531k. The Dow Jones estimate was for 450k. This is a vast improvement over the last two months which missed expectations. Importantly, September's print was revised to the upside, increasing by 312k. Wage inflation came in at the forecast of 0.4% for the month, but was up 4.9% y-o-y. Of note. the participation rate held at the 61.6% level, which would be…

The Fed has a dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximum employment. In this regard, we have seen progress on both fronts. However, the employment market still has room to move before the Fed will be comfortable in terms of its mandate. A broad measure of unemployment in the US is the U6 unemployment rate (as opposed to the often quoted U3 measure). U6 includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed…

The pair consolidates and is likely to remain in such pattern as investors await the always-important Jobs Report from the United States, the outcome of which could decide the next leg of the move

The BoE kept its policy rate at 0.1%. The votes came in at 7-2, with Ramsden and Saunders as the dissenters. Comments from the summary refer to an expectation of inflation dissipating over time, with the central bank viewing supply chain disruptions and global demand as normalising. The market was divided as to whether or not the BoE would hike. This was fuelled by the number of hawkish comments over…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Gold has had a very ordinary 2021. The precious metal has been drifting sideways for most of the year (blue rectangle). We have added a triple moving average to get a sense of gold's directional bias. This is inherently risky because moving averages are trend-following indicators. This means that they work very well during trending moves but give constant whipsaw signals…

Earlier, Premier Li Keqiang commented that China faces downward pressure. He then suggested tax cuts and a reduction in bank fees to stimulate small and medium-sized businesses. These come after some worrying metrics out of China. Manufacturing has slumped in 2021 and the NBS Manufacturing PMI has recorded two months in a row under 50, which implies contraction: China NBS Manufacturing PMI Past performance is not an indicator of future…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The above shows FXCM's USDOLLAR basket on a weekly chart. Given the expectations of a tapering announcement from the FOMC statement today, the analysis here is important. Last week's candle is a potential swing low reference candle (aqua arrow). To be considered as such, this week's candle will need to close above the reference candle's high (aqua horizontal line). The FOMC…

The US Stock markets have started the last quarter of the year on the offensive, after September's poor performance, closing in on their record highs. The latest earnings season is also underway, with results so far being encouraging. The current fourth quarter is an interesting one for many US companies as it includes the holiday season, during which consumers tend to spend more and change their day-to-day habits. Below we…

The UK stock markets is one of the most closely watched in the world and has attracted a high number of Initial Public Offerings this year. It includes some of the world's most exciting companies, ranging from the new gig economy to the traditional banking and oil sectors. Below we take a look at some of the stocks that caught our attention recently and are keeping in our watchlist throughout…

Oil prices continued their rise yesterday, amid forecasts that climbing natural gas prices may drive a switch to oil. Oil prices have risen more than 15% since early September, largely due to the surging demand for natural gas and the search for cheaper substitutes. Natural Gas prices in Europe and Asia are at record highs, while U.S. prices have doubled this year. But what has been driving energy prices up?…