Russell Shor

Bond yields may be near their peak or may have already peaked. If so, and the path of least resistance is down, there are ramifications.

Using UKOil (FXCM’s Brent CFD) as a general reference, the heat that drove oil prices in August and September has declined. The stochastic, a measure of momentum, has dropped below 80 and is angled down (red rectangle). Last week’s candle looks to have charted a lower peak, hinting at the cooling down in the energy market. However, to confirm the lower peak, this week’s candle will need to close below…

The market seems to be cheering Netflix’s (NFLX.us) Q3 results. Released after the market close last week Wednesday, 18 October, the Q3 results showed that nearly 8.8m net new subscribers were added for the quarter. This is the highest number in years.

Gold has been running hot since hostilities began between Israel and Hamas on 7 October. In effect, the market is favouring it as a safe haven given the intricacies of the conflict and the danger that it may spread regionally. To this end, XAUUSD has broken above its green sloping downtrend line and its weekly RSI has popped above 50, which is the bullish side of the indicator. If the…

After briefly moving above 5% the US 10-year yield has retreated and is currently yielding 4.81%. Technically, there is a divergence between the 10-year yield and its RSI. This suggests that momentum may be slowing and that the yield correction may extend.

Tesla released its Q3 earnings yesterday, which were weak and included downbeat comments from CEO Elon Musk. Company adjusted EPS was 66c with disappointing gross margins (excluding regulatory credit sales) of 16.3%. This was lower than the Wall Street estimate of 70c and 17.5% respectively. Operating margin was 7.6%, almost 10% lower than 2022’s comparable.

The US 10-year Treasury yield is trading at 4.97%, just shy of the psychological 5% level. This is likely to weigh on the stock market. In effect, the higher interest rates mean that yields on risk-free treasuries have increased making them compelling to investors. Even those sitting in cash will feel the benefit of the higher yields. Moreover, with these type of returns from yielding assets, it will discourage investing…

Tesla is the world’s most valuable auto stock. It will release its Q3 earnings today, and a key focus will be on gross margins. The company has cut its prices multiple times recently to drive sales, combat a slowing economy and fight the increase in competition. Wall Street is looking for an EPS of 72c and turnover of $23.9bn, however not at the expense of much poorer margins.

Last week’s movement by gold has changed its technical position. The candlesticks have moved above the 30-week EMA and the EMA has bullishly turned up. Moreover, the weekly RSI has popped above 50 (green rectangle) which is the bullish side of the indicator. The longer it maintains above 50, the greater the momentum support for the yellow metal. Another positive is that gold’s candlesticks have broken out above the green…

The US 10-year real yield is moving higher. Its green 5-day EMA is pulling away from its orange 10-day EMA (black circle) and the RSI is moving higher and away from 50 (green rectangle). As yields appreciate, they tend to act as a headwind to the risk side of the market.

Apple shares have begun the week on the backfoot as reports indicate that the iPhone15 may be seeing some weakness in China. According to analysts at Jefferies, iPhone sales have experienced a significant decline in the double-digit range when compared to the iPhone 14 Pro. This drop can be attributed, at least in part, to the launch of Huawei's latest offering, the Mate 60 Pro, which hit the market in…