Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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Pullback may set up a "dip in the uptrend" scenario.
The US 10-year real rate has supported FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket. As the real rate has moved up, so has the USDOLLAR. The correlation coefficient between the two is a robust 84%. This is not surprising. The higher real yield is likely to exert pressure on the risk side of the market, with the dollar benefitting as a safe-haven.
Weakness is starting to seep into the NAS100, with the index charting a lower peak.
The Federal Reserve's policy committee decided to keep its interest-rate target unchanged yesterday and expressed confidence in the ongoing strength of the economy. They conveyed a hawkish message regarding the near and medium term.
Today’s FOMC statement and press conference will affect financial markets, with its tone being of particular importance. The market wants to know how long rates will be at elevated levels.
Gold is resilient ahead of the FOMC policy meeting.
The effects of the strike are starting to be felt, with FXCM’s US Automobiles basket starting to show signs of pressure.
Oil prices are rising today due to concerns about a potential supply shortage. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced they would continue reducing their oil production until the end of the year.
The US 10-year real yield’s green 5-day EMA has pulled away from its orange 10-year EMA (black circle). This is suggestive of strength in the real yield, which is currently trading at 2%. This is elevated and is providing a layer of support for FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket.
Since the end of July, the US 10-year real yield has been moving upwards. US data has been strong, and inflation is proving to be sticky. The thinking has shifted that rates may be higher-for-longer.
Almost 13,000 United Auto Workers (UAW) members went on strike at three American assembly facilities belonging to General Motors, Ford Motor, and Stellantis. This after the union and the automotive companies failed to come to an agreement regarding a fresh labour contract on Thursday evening.
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