The weekly chart on the left shows FXCM's wheat CFD, WHEATF, charting a higher trough (HT) and a higher peak (HP). This price action is the definition of an uptrend. Given the time scale, we think it represents the commodity's primary trend. The right's daily Heiken Ashi candle (HA) chart shows more granularity. Firstly the HA is a trend-following indicator. It is blue and positioned in the daily bullish area, between the upper blue and red bands.
Moreover, the Bollinger bands are moving away from each other (black ellipses). This divergence indicates the volatility in the soft commodity is picking up as the price appreciates. If it holds to the bullish zone, the next leg up may be underway.
Finally, we note that a Russian merchant ship with stolen Ukraine grain has been turned away from at least one Mediterranean port. Instead, it has docked in the Syrian port of Latakia, and CNN has identified the ship as the bulk carrier Matros Pozynich. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has estimated that at least 400,000 tons of grain have been stolen since the Russian invasion. The shunning of stolen wheat will likely exacerbate an already tight market.If so, this will add to an already worrisome stagflationary environment.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.