USOIL Rises as EU Agrees to Ban Most Russian Oil

USOIL Analysis

European Leaders reached a compromise overnight and agreed on a sixth package of sanctions against Russia for the invasion in Ukraine, which will ban most oil imports from the country.

EU Council President Charles Michel tweeted after the agreement, that the package will "immediately impact 75% of Russian oil imports", while by the end of the current year "90% of the Russian oil imported in Europe will be banned". [1]

Meanwhile the Covid-19 situation in China shows signs of improvement, with 99 local cases reported for May 30 (symptomatic and asymptomatic). Eighteen of those were in Beijing and thirty-one in Shanghai [2]. As reported by Reuters, Beijing reopened parts of its public transport and some malls, while Shanghai will remove some curbs on businesses from June 1. [3]

Today's economic data from the world's second largest consumer of oil however, were not that good, since factory activity remained in contraction territory in May, albeit the fall was at a slower pace compared to March. In particular, China May Manufacturing PMI was 49.6, from 47.4 prior.

USOil extends its advance to twelve-week highs today, helped by the EU's ban on Russian oil and supported by the reopening of China, while markets will now turn to the OPEC+ production decision on Thursday.

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The commodity heads towards a stellar month and potentially the best in two years, now eyeing 122.04, but taking out the March multi-year highs (129.46) may prove a tall order at this stage.

On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory and this could lead to profit-taking as the month draws to an end. As such, we could pressure and a breach of 115.57, although a significant deterioration in sentiment would be needed for a deeper decline that would threaten the daily Ichimoku cloud and the EMA200 (109.50-108.20).

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 31 May 2022 https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1531424785464320000

2

Retrieved 31 May 2022 https://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202205/31/content_WS6295ae26c6d02e533532b876.html

3

Retrieved 03 Jul 2022 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-takes-further-steps-towards-reopening-beijing-eases-covid-curbs-2022-05-29/

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