Currencies

Gold’s breakout has gathered momentum as falling long-term yields and a softer dollar give bulls a powerful fundamental tailwind.

The Australian central bank kept rates at 4.35% and lowered its inflation forecasts, weighing on the pair, but does not see inflation returning to the target range this year and kept the door open to more hikes.

Gold’s improving momentum and strong long-term support suggest the recent sell-off may offer an attractive entry point.

USD/JPY extends its decline after the two countries took joint action to stem yen weakness and volatility, but structural tailwinds persist.

USDOLLAR’s next move depends on whether higher rate expectations and safe-haven demand outweigh doubts about Fed credibility and the growth risks from Hormuz.

Oil surges, USDOLLAR breaks higher, gold hesitates and SPX500 rotates as the Fed takes centre stage.

The latest soft inflation print may help the Fed avoid a rate hike on Wednesday, but the US-Iran conflict sustains upside risks, fuelling uncertainty around the outcome.

Middle East supply risk is a key driver, with oil and the dollar breaking higher on inflation and safe-haven flows, gold and the JPN225 trying to rally against those same yield and dollar headwinds, and the yen sitting on intervention watch above 163.

The BoK raised rates for the first time in over three years as surging chip exports fuel inflation and growth, in a shift that could help contain won weakness.

Softer-than-expected US inflation, tempered by Fed Chair Warsh's caution, is driving sharply divergent and technically pivotal moves across oil, the dollar, gold, and Japanese equities.

Gold’s near-term direction will depend on whether CPI, Warsh and Hormuz push real yields and the dollar higher or lower.