GBP/USD Reined In as Governor Bailey Leaves Policy Options Open

  • GBPUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

GBP/USD Analysis

The pair started the week on the offensive, helped by the trade deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom [1], which aims to resolve frictions caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol. The protocol had been agreed as part of the Brexit deal and essentially kept Northern Ireland within EU's single market, with incoming goods from the UK subject to checks and controls.

However, the policy differential between the US and UK central banks poses headwinds, since heightened expectations around the Fed's terminal rate support the greenback. The Bank of England had raised rates last month but the rhetoric was soft, without shutting the door to more tightening though. [2]

Today, Governor Bailey left all policy options open, saying that further increase "may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided", cautioning against suggesting "either that we are done with increasing Bank Rate, or that we will inevitably need to do more". [3]

This puts pressure on GBP/USD, which erases much of the day's earlier gains, keeping it under the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This maintains risk for new 2023 lows (1.1840), although a catalyst would likely be required for that.

On the other hand, the pair stays in profitable territory in a constructive week. A push through the cloud (1.2200-10) would not be surprising, although it does not inspire confidence for further gains towards 1.2249.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 01 Mar 2023 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/windsor-framework-unveiled-to-fix-problems-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol

2

Retrieved 01 Mar 2023 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2023/march/andrew-bailey-speech-at-cost-of-living-crisis-conference-brunswick-group

3

Retrieved 17 Apr 2024 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2023/february-2023

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