GBP/JPY Upbeat As Safe-Havens Are Pressured

  • GBPJPY
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

GBP/JPY – H4

Today we see renewed optimism in the market, around a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine dispute. This was sparked from the news that US Secretary of State Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, in Europe next week, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine – as per the US State Department spokesperson. [1]

Despite the optimism, western officials continue to warn that they cannot confirm the withdrawal of troops from the area near Ukraine, which Russia had announced a few days back. In fact, Mr Blinken noted in his UN speech yesterday that "We do not see that happening on the ground", while stressing that Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine's borders. [2]

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that "Russia has amassed the biggest force we have seen in Europe for decades, in and around Ukraine" and expressed concern of Russia trying to use hostilities in Donbas "as a pretext for an armed attack against Ukraine". [3]

Today's optimism works against safe-havens such as the Japanese Yen, while the pair had received another boost from Wednesday's Inflation figures form the UK. Headline CPI increased by 5.5% year-over-year in January, from +5.4% in the prior month - marking the highest level since March 1992.

High inflation has been the main driver for the two back-to-back rate hikes that the Bank of England has delivered and this week's CPI, strengthens the case for a third straight increase, when the bank meets next month.

GBP/JPY is upbeat today and tries for its fourth straight profitable week, which keeps 158.08-22 in his eyesight. These are the highest levels since June 2016 and for a push through, fresh impetus will likely be needed.

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Despite the good mood, the situation in Ukraine remains tense and progress for the pair has been slow this week. This makes it vulnerable to the ascending trend-line form January's low (156.10-00), although a close below the EMA200 (155.60-29) will be needed for the upside bias to pause.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 18 Feb 2022 https://twitter.com/StateDeptSpox/status/1494485800494542870

2

Retrieved 18 Feb 2022 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-russias-threat-to-peace-and-security-at-the-un-security-council/

3

Retrieved 01 Jul 2022 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191847.htm

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