EUR/USD Upbeat After Tuesday’s Rally on Ukraine Optimism

  • EURUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

The delegations of the two countries met face-to-face on Tuesday in Turkey and the talks seem to have been constructive. As per Russian news agency TASS, the leader of the Russian delegations said that Ukraine's proposals "demonstrate that it wants a neutral and nuclear-free status"[1]. One of the main takeaways, was Russia's pledge to "drastically reduce military activity" around Kiyv – the Capital of Ukraine. [2]

Ukrainian Presidnt Zelenskyy appeared cautious, noting that the signals form the talks can be called "positive", but also said that Ukrainians "are not naive people". [3]

US Pentagon spokesperson Kirby confirmed that "some movement by some Russian units away from Kyiv" has taken place, but believes this is a "repositioning, not a real withdrawal", adding that "we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine".

EUR/USD Analysis

These developments created risk-on mood in markets and helped the common currency to roughly a 100-pip rally yesterday. It blasted through the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022High/Low drop and today it takes the EMA200 out, trying to surpass the 50% mark (1.1150) that could allow it to challenge 1.1233, but further advance may be harder.

On the other hand, the pair's previous visits above the 38.2% level have not been successful, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to overbought conditions. This could create pressure below mid-1.1000, but a catalyst will be required for fresh weekly lows (1.0960-53).

Caution is needed ahead, as the economic calendar features potentially market moving releases, such as Inflation updates from Eurozone and the US, as well as the always closely watched NFPs.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 30 Mar 2022 https://tass.com/politics/1429025

2

Retrieved 30 Mar 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch

3

Retrieved 30 Mar 2022 https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/signali-z-peregovoriv-mozhna-nazvati-pozitivnimi-ale-voni-ne-73937

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